Blacks Retail Report

Luxury Apparel
January 2007

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Table of Contents

 

The Big Picture

The U.S. economy is expected to accelerate over the next few months, following a strong holiday season in which online and luxury retailers came out on top.

Wage increases and declining energy prices will drive growth, economists say. Inflation also appears to be in check, and the housing slump, while not improving, is at least not deepening.

In the luxury sector Blacks believes that spring business will trend upward by 5% to 7%. New spring merchandise is already selling as deliveries hit the floor.

 

Turn Time

With February around the corner, merchants should have already moved to a high level of markdowns on leftover holiday merchandise. Floors should be filling with spring inventory as we prepare for early spring sales.

It's still a little early to identify spring sales patterns but we expect knitwear and five-pocket product to continue to do well. The denim piece of the five-pocket market will decline in favor of other fabrics, but denim will remains a key basic. The knitwear selection is strong and there is no reason why this category shouldn't perform well through the fall/winter season. Sport shirts and high-end tees are also a good bet. Unique, highpriced T-shirts have been popular in the street wear market for some time and this influence is moving to the luxury market where we are seeing elaborate dying and printing on high-quality tees.

In women's wear, sell-thru rates are already accelerating as the new collections land. The traditional spring palette of cheery pastels is to be expected, but we are also seeing more gray and black than vendors usually offer for the season.

 

Fall Preview

In fact, if the recent Milan men's wear shows taught us anything, it's that gray is back. From Burberry Prorsum to Calvin Klein, the new collections are overwhelmingly gray, with accents of black, white, burgundy and copper. Long, think knits, fine tailoring and military-style coats offered a traditional influence, while metallic colors, ski-inspired padding and new futuristic materials gave the fall collections a forward look.

Whichever styles merchants prefer, the key to fall is buying more luxury merchandise. Luxe items significantly boosted sales in fall/winter '06 and we expect this trend to continue.

 

Blacks Bottom Line

For fall, think about doubling the amount of luxury-priced merchandise that you bought last year, but don't forget the core customer.

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