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The U.S. economy is expected
to accelerate over the next few
months, following a strong holiday
season in which online and luxury
retailers came out on top.
Wage increases and declining energy prices will drive growth, economists say. Inflation also appears to be in check, and the housing slump, while not improving, is at least not deepening.
In the luxury sector Blacks believes that spring business will trend upward by 5% to 7%. New spring merchandise is already selling as deliveries hit the floor.
It's still a little early to identify spring sales patterns but we expect knitwear and five-pocket product to continue to do well. The denim piece of the five-pocket market will decline in favor of other fabrics, but denim will remains a key basic. The knitwear selection is strong and there is no reason why this category shouldn't perform well through the fall/winter season. Sport shirts and high-end tees are also a good bet. Unique, highpriced T-shirts have been popular in the street wear market for some time and this influence is moving to the luxury market where we are seeing elaborate dying and printing on high-quality tees.
In women's wear, sell-thru rates are already accelerating as the new collections land. The traditional spring palette of cheery pastels is to be expected, but we are also seeing more gray and black than vendors usually offer for the season.
Whichever styles merchants prefer, the key to fall is buying more luxury merchandise. Luxe items significantly boosted sales in fall/winter '06 and we expect this trend to continue.